Why Auto Insurance Rates Are Moving in 2026–2027: The Real Drivers and How to Check Your State

Author

Insurance & Personal Finance Research Analyst — Independent researcher focused on insurance regulation, market pricing, and consumer rights. This article is for educational purposes only and is not a substitute for advice from a licensed insurance agent.

Core Conclusion

The national average auto premium is roughly flat in 2026 — up somewhere between 1% and 3% after a ~6% drop in 2025 — but that average hides the real story. Some states are still climbing double digits (Connecticut, Oregon, Maryland, Utah, Nevada) while others are falling. Your renewal has almost nothing to do with the national average and everything to do with one document your insurer filed with your state.

The 2026 market in one paragraph

After back-to-back years of steep increases (roughly 11–12% in both 2023 and 2024), the national full-coverage average cooled. Insurify’s mid-2026 analysis put the national full-coverage average near $2,237 a year and projected 2026 to end up about 1% — the smallest year-over-year move since 2022. The Zebra’s 2026 State of Insurance report landed at a similar $2,256 average and a ~3% national increase. Either way, the era of double-digit national jumps is, for now, paused. The catch: underneath that flat line, state results diverge sharply.

What actually drives your rate

Insurers don’t pick a number. They file one. Every rate change travels through a state insurance department (DOI), and in most states those filings are public. The underlying cost pressures behind the filings are consistent across the industry:

• Repair inflation, especially ADAS. Modern vehicles packed with advanced driver-assistance systems (cameras, sensors, radar) cost 25–30% more to repair than older models, according to AAA. A minor bumper incident now triggers expensive calibration.
• Catastrophe losses. Hurricanes, wildfires, hail, and floods push comprehensive claims up, and reinsurance costs (the insurance insurers buy) flow straight into primary rates — hardest in coastal and wildfire-exposed states.
• Litigation and “social inflation.” Large jury verdicts (“nuclear verdicts”) and claim severity inflate liability costs, especially in litigation-heavy states. Georgia’s 2025 tort reform (SB 68/SB 69) and Louisiana’s “No Pay, No Play” reinforcement are direct responses.
• Reinsurance pressure. After major loss years, reinsurers raise prices, and primary carriers pass that through.
• Credit-based insurance scores. In most states, a credit-based insurance score (not your FICO score) materially affects your rate — sometimes more than a single at-fault accident.
• Higher mandatory minimums. Several states have raised required liability limits, lifting everyone’s floor.

The states that banned credit-based pricing

This is the single biggest structural divide in U.S. auto insurance. Four states prohibit insurers from using credit-based insurance scores to price, deny, or refuse to renew auto policies:

State	Status	What it means for you
California	Full ban (Prop. 103)	Credit cannot affect premiums, eligibility, or renewal
Hawaii	Full ban	Rates based on driving record, age, vehicle, mileage
Massachusetts	Full ban	State-regulated system uses driving history and claims
Michigan	Full ban	No-fault system relies on driving record and vehicle factors

Several others restrict but don’t fully ban: Maryland bars credit-based rate increases at renewal (new policies only), Oregon blocks credit as the sole reason to cancel or non-renew, and Utah requires credit not be the sole underwriting factor. Washington’s emergency-rule ban was struck down in state court, so credit scoring remains allowed there with limits. If you live in CA, HI, MA, or MI, your credit score has zero effect on your auto rate — so comparison-shop on driving discounts, vehicle safety, and bundling instead.

States with the biggest 2026 moves

The national “flat” number is a mirage locally. Based on Insurify’s and The Zebra’s 2026 reports:

• Connecticut is projected to lead full-year 2026 increases at roughly +14.7%.
• Oregon, Maryland, and Utah are tracking double-digit increases through mid-2026, driven by wildfire risk, high uninsured-motorist rates, and rising repair costs.
• Nevada remains one of the most expensive markets absolutely (~$311–$335/month for full coverage per industry reports), with population growth and high theft compounding claims.
• At the high end of absolute cost, Louisiana and Florida sit well above the national average (often $3,200–$3,400/year), driven by litigation environment, catastrophe exposure, and uninsured-motorist loads.
• On the other side, Iowa, Minnesota, and Arkansas are among the states projected to see decreases in 2026.

The takeaway: ask “what’s happening in my state?” — never “what’s happening nationally?”

How to verify the increase on your own renewal

Most people pay a renewal increase without checking whether it came from the market or from a decision. It’s a public record.

1. Find the filing. Insurers submit rate changes through SERFF (System for Electronic Rate and Form Filing), run by the NAIC. Most states publish filings via SERFF Filing Access (portals.naic.org/serff-filing-access), and many DOIs run their own search portal on top (Texas, Illinois, Washington, Georgia, Michigan, and California all do).
2. Search your carrier’s legal name — it’s on your declarations page and is often a subsidiary you’ve never heard of (e.g., “Allstate Fire and Casualty,” not “Allstate”).
3. Read the rate summary. It states the overall percentage change requested, the effective date for new business, and the effective date for renewals. Rate changes usually hit new policies first and existing policyholders at renewal — which is why the increase feels like it appeared from nowhere.
4. Do the math. If the statewide filing is +9.4% and your bill rose 10%, most of your increase is the filing, not your driving. Shopping is then the only real lever left.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July 2026 CPI reported the motor vehicle insurance index fell 0.3% that month after a 2.0% drop in June. If your renewal rose 10% during that stretch, the increase didn’t come from the market — it came from a filing your state approved.

What to do if your rate jumped

• Shop at renewal, not mid-term. Rate filings apply to a carrier’s whole book; the agent can’t unwind a state-approved increase.
• Check the states that banned credit scoring if your penalty looks credit-driven.
• Ask your DOI about rate-justification rules — a growing number of states now require insurers to explain increases.
• Improve the factors you control: mileage, prior claims, and (where allowed) credit-based insurance score, which re-pulls at renewal every 6–12 months.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is car insurance going up in 2026?

Nationally, full-coverage premiums are roughly flat — up about 1% to 3% after a ~6% drop in 2025. But the average hides huge state differences: Connecticut is projected up nearly 15%, while Iowa and Minnesota are projected to fall. Your state matters far more than the national number.

Which states ban credit-based insurance scores for auto?

Four states fully ban the practice: California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Michigan. Maryland, Oregon, and Utah impose partial restrictions. In the four ban states, your credit score has no effect on your auto premium.

How do I check if my rate increase was approved?

Search your carrier’s rate filing through the NAIC SERFF Filing Access portal or your state insurance department’s site. The filing summary shows the requested percentage change and effective dates. Most filings are public records.

Why did my bill go up if national rates fell?

National averages are made of thousands of separate, state-specific filings. Your increase came from your insurer’s filed rate for your state and book of business — not the market. If your state’s approved filing was, say, +9%, almost all of your increase is that filing, and the rest is your personal factors.

Sources

• NAIC — SERFF Filing Access (public rate filings): https://content.naic.org/insurance-topics/serff-filing-access
• Insurify — State of Auto Insurance 2026 (mid-year analysis, ~250M quotes)
• The Zebra — 2026 State of Insurance report (32M+ rates, Quadrant/S&P Global)
• Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) — credit-based insurance scores overview
• AAA — ADAS repair cost research
• Bureau of Labor Statistics — July 2026 Consumer Price Index (motor vehicle insurance index)
• State insurance departments: California DOI, Hawaii DOI, Massachusetts DOI, Michigan DOI, Maryland DOI, Oregon DOI, Utah DOI